FROM: Jerid Kurtz, Campaign Manager, Warnock for Georgia
TO: Interested Parties
DATE: July 16, 2020
RE: Warnock Momentum Following Another Strong Fundraising Quarter, Growing Support
View Medium Post of This Memo Here
In the race for Georgia’s special Senate Election, Reverend Raphael Warnock, Senior Pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, the spiritual home of The Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., has built a formidable operation that is well-positioned to flip the seat held by embattled Senator Kelly Loeffler in less than six months. Warnock, who is a first-time candidate, now commands a top-tier campaign that has earned endorsements among Georgians and national leaders with financial resources and grassroots support to compete statewide.
A native of Savannah, Warnock, who is vying to be the Peach State’s first African-American United States Senator, has centered his campaign on critical issues for Georgia voters, including: access to quality and affordable health care; good schools for all our children and affordable education and technical training for everyone; fighting for the dignity of working people and livable wages; and protecting voting rights. As Georgia confronts the public health crisis and its own reckoning on race, Reverend Warnock has been a leader “among those that set the tone” and now stands out in the field.
FUNDRAISING
Warnock is Building Grassroots Infrastructure and Resources to Communicate Statewide
In the two fundraising quarters Reverend Warnock has been in the race, he’s led the field. Despite joining the race a month into Q1, he outraised both Senator Loeffler and Congressman Doug Collins, a performance that repeated in Q2 when he raised nearly $3 million. With more than $2.9 million cash on hand, Warnock also has more resources in the bank than Congressman Collins as we move into Q3.
Warnock’s cash haul also points to robust small-dollar support, a measure of grassroots enthusiasm and the resonance of Warnock’s candidacy. In addition, the Campaign has built one of the fastest growing email lists for a first-time candidate, proving that he will be the best-funded Democrat, with the resources to communicate on statewide TV/Radio in the fall.
Key Highlights: For the cycle, Team Warnock has earned:
- Total Raised: Over $4.4 Million Raised
- Cash-on-Hand: Nearly $2.9 Million
- Individual Contributions: 105,000
- Individual Contributors: 64,000
- Over 93% of Contributions are under $100
- Average Online Donation $34.80
- Contributions from every Georgia Congressional District
POLLING AND ANALYSIS
Recent Surveys Have Shown A Tight Race Between Warnock and Leading GOP Candidates
Despite millions of dollars of spending for Loeffler and Collins, Warnock remains competitive and polling has shown a margin-of-error race with both Republicans. A recent survey also showed that once voters hear more about him, Georgians choose Warnock by significant margins over all candidates.
Key Highlights:
- Public Policy Polling (June 2020) found a tight race in Georgia across the board. In the special Senate Election, Warnock (20%) begins the race virtually tied with Loeffler (21%) and Collins (23%). And in head-to-head matchups Warnock remains competitive, leading Loeffler (43% to 40%) and within the margin of error with Collins (41% to 43%). After voters hear Warnock’s biography, he leads the field: Warnock (36%), Collins (23%), Loeffler (18%), and beats both Loeffler (46% to 39%) and Collins (44% to 42%).
- Civiqs (May 2020) found Warnock taking second place (18%), over incumbent Senator Loeffler who places fourth (12%), without any paid advertising. In a runoff scenario, Warnock leads Loeffler (45% to 32%), and he beats Collins (45% to 44%) – the only Democratic candidate to do so. Across the board, polling has pointed to a common trend: Warnock performs the best against GOP candidates with key groups needed to flip Georgia, including Black voters, suburban women, and independents.
Independent analysts and political handicappers agree: the race has grown competitive over time due to Warnock’s unique candidacy. And last week alone, The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball highlighted growing competitiveness that favored him.
Key Highlights:
- In January 2020, the Cook Political Report moved the race in Democrats’ direction after Warnock entered the race. In May 2020, National Journal ranked the Georgia special election among the most competitive Senate races in the country, calling it a battleground. And in July 2020, Inside Elections shifted its rating in Warnock’s direction.
SUPPORT
Warnock Has Consolidated Support, Receiving More Major Endorsements Than Any Other Candidate in The Race.
While the race takes shape, one thing is clear: Warnock is the candidate who can flip this seat. He’s earned support from Georgia leaders and national figures – including the majority of the U.S. Senate’s Democratic Caucus – drawing support from progressives, moderates, and conservatives alike. Notably, he was the first candidate in the country to earn the backing of Stacey Abrams and has legislators from all of Georgia’s metro areas: Albany, Athens, Atlanta, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Savannah and Valdosta.
Key Highlights: Team Warnock now counts the following among its endorsers:
- 31 United States Senators and 6 Congressional Representatives
- 14 Georgia State Senators and 46 State Representatives
- 12 Atlanta City Council Members and 4 Past Council Presidents
- Georgia’s Most Recent Democratic United States Senator
Below, is an abbreviated list of public support for the Warnock for Georgia campaign. A comprehensive list can be found here:
National Leaders and Organizations
United States Senators Kamala Harris (CA), Elizabeth Warren (MA), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Cory Booker (NJ), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), Sherrod Brown (OH), and Tim Kaine (VA), Congressman and House Minority Whip Jim Clyburn (SC-6) and Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley (MA-7), Planned Parenthood, End Citizens United, Democracy for America, the Congressional Black Caucus and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Georgia Leaders
Congressman John Lewis (GA-5), Stacey Abrams, Jon Ossoff, Ambassador Andrew Young, Jason Carter, Atlanta City Council Presidents Felicia Moore (current), Lisa Borders and Cathy Woolard, and former United States Senator Max Cleland (GA). State Senate Minority Leader Steve Henson (GA-41), Caucus Chair Gloria Butler (GA-55), Vice Chair Emanuel Jones (GA-10) and Secretary Nan Orrock (GA-36). State House of Representatives Minority Leader Bob Trammell (GA-132), Whip William Boddie (GA-62), Caucus Chair James Beverly (GA-143), Secretary Pat Gardner (GA-57) and Treasurer Kimberly Alexander (GA-66). Other notable officials, including: State Senators Lester Jackson (GA-2), Jen Jordan (GA-6), and Elena Parent (GA-42) along with Representatives Calvin Smyre (GA-135), J. Craig Gordon (GA-16), Bee Nguyen (GA-89), Brenda Lopez Romero (GA-99), Sheila Nelson (GA-125), Gloria Frazier (GA-126), Carl Gilliard (GA-162), and Al Williams (GA-168).
GEORGIA DYNAMICS
Georgia is Changing: Warnock is the Candidate Best Equipped to Take Advantage of the Shift
For weeks, news coverage has pointed to an increasingly competitive state of play across the Sun Belt. In 2020, Georgia Republicans are vulnerable, evidenced by Democrats leading or within the margin of error of winning traditionally Republican-held seats at the federal level. And Georgia Democrats are within range of flipping the State House, potentially giving themselves a seat at the table for redistricting.
Key Highlights: Some of the gains that Warnock can uniquely expand on, such as:
- Since 2016, Georgia Democrats have flipped historically GOP suburban counties; broken the State Senate supermajority and picked up House seats, mayorships and city council seats, and won almost 49% of the vote in the Governor’s race, while holding Republicans to single digit margins in other statewide contests.
The June 9th primary also saw record-breaking turnout with 1.3 Million people voting in the Democratic Primary to challenge David Perdue, despite chaos and continued voter suppression at the hands of state officials. And nearly half of the over 300,000 newly registered voters since 2018 (when Stacey Abrams fell short just 55,000 votes) are people of color.
BOTTOM LINE
Looking ahead to Election Day, Reverend Warnock is the candidate positioned to win support across urban, suburban, and rural Georgia; capitalize on the state’s new battleground status; and provide Democrats the best chance to flip a U.S. Senate seat in a generation.
View Medium Post of This Memo Here
###
