Independent Analyst Had Moved Race in Democrats’ Direction After Reverend Warnock’s Entry
Atlanta, GA – Today, the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor took a closer look at Georgia’s Special Senate election, upgrading the race to “Toss Up” after the close of a strong third quarter with nearly $13 million raised and a string of recent polls that show Warnock’s unique candidacy consolidating support ahead of Election Day.
Ranking the race as one of the most competitive in the country, Cook reports on the “problem Georgia poses for Republicans,” as 21 days out from Election Day both parties see “that it remains very competitive.”
In its analysis, Cook also pointed to Warnock’s “skyrocketing” name ID and polling. This follows a blockbuster third quarter fundraising performance, when Warnock reported over $17 million raised in less than ten months as a first-time candidate. The analysis also highlighted the threat Senator Loeffler and Congressman Collins pose to the GOP’s appeals to “white suburban women Republicans,” whom the GOP is “hemorrhaging in the Atlanta suburbs” in a “rapidly changing Georgia” — which is not a concern for Warnock. After Warnock entered the race in January, Cook moved its rating in Democrats’ direction.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Cook Political Report: Three Weeks Out, Three Rating Changes Toward Democrats Add To a Growing Edge in Battle for Senate Control
By Jessica Taylor
October 13, 2020
Key sections, below. Read the full story here.
- Today we are also moving the Georgia special into the Toss Up column.
- But since Warnock started spending his war chest in August on TV ads, he’s seen his name ID and subsequent support in polls skyrocket, to the point where he’s now polling in the lead. That leaves Loeffler and Collins to fight for the remaining runoff spot, and the battle royale between the two that national Republicans had feared would come to fruition has indeed forced both candidates to run as far to the right as humanly possible. In Loeffler’s case, she’s even run a series of bizarre TV ads where she boasts she’s “more conservative than Atilla the Hun.”
- Loeffler still seems like the most likely candidate to advance to the January runoff, given how little money Collins appears to spend. But the extreme right positions Loeffler has been forced to take just to edge Collins out has made her virtually unrecognizable to the type of candidate Republicans had surely hoped they were getting when Gov. Brian Kemp appointed her to the Senate — one who would appeal to white suburban women Republicans are rapidly hemorrhaging in the Atlanta suburbs. It’s going to be very hard even to attempt to pivot back to the center in just two months for Loeffler, and if Collins is in the runoff he certainly wouldn’t even try to pivot. That’s not a recipe for winning a statewide race in a rapidly changing Georgia. So this race now joins its other Peach State counterpart in the Toss Up column.
About Reverend Warnock
Reverend Raphael Warnock grew up in Kayton Homes public housing in Savannah. Fourteen years ago, he was chosen to serve as Senior Pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, the former pulpit of Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. He is only the fifth Senior Pastor in the history of the church and the youngest pastor ever selected to serve in that position. Reverend Warnock believes his service does not stop at the church door, and has been an advocate to expand health care coverage and to ensure hardworking Georgians can make a living wage. As Senator, Reverend Warnock will bring to Washington the concerns of struggling Georgia families who wonder why no one is looking out for them, and focus on fighting for quality, affordable health care, for the dignity of working people who are paid too little as our government works more for Wall Street, and to make sure every voice is heard.
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