TO: Interested Parties 
FROM: Quentin Fulks, Warnock for Georgia Campaign Manager
DATE: November 10, 2022
RE: Why Reverend Warnock Will Win the Runoff

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Georgia voters know this runoff election is about who is able to best represent our state in the U.S. Senate, and that is clearly Reverend Raphael Warnock. He has the competence and character to serve Georgians, as he’s done in the Senate and throughout his ministry, and knows how to win in a runoff. 

What It Takes to Represent Georgia

Through a lifetime of service in his ministry and now as Senator, Reverend Warnock has shown he has both the competence and character to represent Georgia. 

As the 18th most bipartisan Senator, Reverend Warnock successfully negotiated investments for Georgia businesses to grow jobs in state and end our reliance on foreign countries like China, capped the cost of insulin for seniors to $35 a month, fought to keep open the Savannah Combat Readiness Training Center, and took on the shipping companies and big corporations making record prices while increasing costs for Georgians. That record builds on his work to improve people’s lives: fighting to expand access to affordable healthcare, pushing to reduce the cost of prescription drugs, working to bring people together and find solutions, and standing up to anyone to do what is right. 

Meanwhile, Walker has shown he is completely unqualified for a job that requires knowledge of the issues and an interest in listening and learning more about what matters most to Georgians; honesty and an ability to take responsibility for one’s actions and votes; and transparency and a willingness to answer questions.  

Walker’s Weak Performance In Environment That Set Him Up for Success

Herschel Walker underperformed in an environment that set him up for success. 

• Not only did Walker underperform Governor Kemp, he earned fewer raw votes than every single Republican on the ballot. Of nine statewide Republican candidates, Walker was one of only two who failed to clear two million votes.  
  
  
• Walker not only failed to meet the benchmarks set by Republican candidates this cycle, he also underperformed Trump’s 2020 vote share in rural, suburban, and urban counties. 
  
  
  • Trump won 48% of the vote in suburban counties, Walker is currently at 46.5%.
    
    
  • Trump won 23% of the vote in urban counties, Walker is currently at 20.6% of the vote.
    
    
  • And when it comes to rural Georgia, Walker failed to match Trump’s ability to mobilize rural counties, with Republican turnout lagging 2020 results more in rural counties than other counties. 

Warnock Knows How to Win a Runoff, Campaign Already Executing Strategy 

Ahead of January 2021, Warnock built a robust operation that led to more Georgians casting their ballots in that runoff than did in the 2016 presidential election. Reverend Warnock earned nearly 3 million raw votes – more than any other Democrat in a nonpresidential election in Georgia history. With a two-point margin of victory and more than 50 percent of the vote, Warnock is a proven vote getter.

Reverend Warnock is applying the principles of that successful election and is already executing the strategy to be successful on December 6^th: 

• Grow his coalition of support: Warnock earned over 35,000 more votes than Walker and he did so by meeting or outperforming Biden’s vote share in urban and suburban counties alike: 
  
  
  • In 2020, Joe Biden received 77% of the vote in urban counties; as of early Wednesday morning, Warnock was at 79.4% of the vote share in urban counties.
    
    
  • In suburban counties, Biden received 52% of the vote, Warnock is currently at 52.5%. 

• This overperformance reflects Warnock’s strong campaign operation, the manner in which Raphael Warnock has been serving all the people of Georgia, and voters’ enthusiasm to support his candidacy.

• Ramp up the robust mobilization efforts, including the field program that drove record turnout, and digital programs that reached voters where they are: While most campaigns begin mobilization and persuade to mobilize efforts in the final weeks, the Warnock campaign began paid mobilization and persuade-to-mobilize programs in February as we went on TV, targeting key demographics for our winning coalition. Our field program ramped up the closer we got to the general election with more than 3.4 million conversations with voters on doors and via phone. 

• Fund the communications and campaign operation to combat false, misleading attacks and make sure Georgians have the facts. 

Reverend Warnock will win the runoff by continuing the strategic investments in paid communication and field organizing, continuing to hold the diverse coalition that has driven Reverend Warnock’s success, and emphasizing that this race is about who is able to represent our state. We are confident we will win on December 6th.